Belgium v IR Iran · the model leans IR Iran
Belgium v IR Iran
Belgium
IR IranThe model thinks IR Iran are mispriced. Our number reads 26% on the away side; the market reads 12%. That +13.3 pts gap is a Pick.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Clean bill on the team sheets, as far as anyone's said.
This is a Pick. Belgium v IR Iran in FIFA World Cup 2026 on Sunday, and the model and the market disagree on the IR Iran side by +13.3 pts. That's the gap the verdict rests on.
On Elo, Belgium comes in 120 points ahead — Belgium at 1860, IR Iran at 1740. Both Elo numbers are pulled live from the public Elo source. The adjustment layer is quiet on this fixture — no host bonus, no home-ground correction, no altitude folding in. The Elo numbers above are what the model uses.
Three-way split from the model: Belgium to win at 51%, the draw at 23%, and IR Iran to win at 26%. Draw share decays with Elo gap; on a fixture this evenly matched the draw carries more probability than a casual reader might guess. IR Iran on the win side reads 26%.
On the same three-way, Skybet: Belgium to win at 68%, the draw at 20%, and IR Iran to win at 12%. The IR Iran side trades at 12% on Polymarket, which prices out at American odds of +733. That's where the engine differs: our number reads 26%, +13.3 pts wider.
Bootstrap discipline matters most on the longshots — wide bands on small point estimates collapse the Pick rate fast. On IR Iran the lower bound is 21%, which keeps the lower-bound gap at +9.0 pts against the market — past +3 pts, so the Pick clears. The claim is narrow: on this fixture, on this side, the price is below what the underlying read supports. We don't argue the market is broadly wrong — across the priced field the model and the line agree more often than they disagree. We surface the ones where they don't.
The read above is the most recent one, not a frozen call. With kickoff 21 days out, refresh is weekly; daily cadence picks up inside the final five days. Injury news, the actual XI, and conditions at kickoff all change what the model sees. We re-publish on every refresh. The page shows what the engine reads; what to do with that information is a reader's call.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Belgium
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.38 | 72.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 1.41 | 71.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.41 | 71.3% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 69.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 67.7%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.55 | 22.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 5.00 | 20.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 5.00 | 20.3% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 21.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 20.0%
IR Iran
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 7.59 | 13.2% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 7.80 | 13.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 7.80 | 13.0% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Sky BetBestSportsbookUK | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 12.8% |
Sharp consensus fair value 12.3%
Why the model disagrees
A gap this wide (+13.3 pts) usually means one of the following: a reputation-led short price the model isn't pricing in, a stale line that hasn't absorbed recent fitness or lineup news, a tactical or defensive profile that doesn't match the headline form, or a market lag on travel, altitude, or weather. The drivers below show which of these the engine is weighing on this fixture.
The drivers
- The +13.3pp gap clears the Desk's 3 percentage point threshold for a Pick.
- This is a selection call on the IR Iran side, not a blanket read on the market.
- Confirmed XI, fitness news, and weather re-enter the prior closer to kickoff.
- Bootstrap lower-bound on the IR Iran side still clears the Pick threshold.