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72 priced fixtures · 23 Picks · 49 Pass · 0 Avoid
Thursday 11 June 2026
Mexico v South Africa
Mexico
South AfricaThis is a Pick on the South Africa side — the model has them at 19%, the market at 12%. A 7.2 pts gap is enough on a fixture this close to even.
Friday 12 June 2026
Korea Republic v Czechia
Korea Republic
CzechiaKorea Republic v Czechia is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Canada
Bosnia and HerzegovinaCanada is the favourite at 52%; the model lands within touching distance at 62%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Saturday 13 June 2026
United States v Paraguay
United States
ParaguayOn United States v Paraguay the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Qatar v Switzerland
Qatar
SwitzerlandThe model thinks Qatar are mispriced. Our number reads 20% on the home side; the market reads 8%. That +12.6 pts gap is a Pick.
Brazil v Morocco
Brazil
MoroccoBrazil is the favourite at 60%; the model lands within touching distance at 56%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Sunday 14 June 2026
Haiti v Scotland
Haiti
ScotlandScotland is the favourite at 68%; the model lands within touching distance at 75%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Australia v Türkiye
Australia
TürkiyeA 15.8 pts gap across model and market on the Australia side. Our model, after host and altitude adjustments, rates Australia at 34%; Kalshi sits at 18%.
Germany v Curaçao
Germany
CuraçaoOn Germany v Curaçao the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Netherlands v Japan
Netherlands
JapanAcross Netherlands, the draw, and Japan, neither side stretches more than a point past the market. Pass.
Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
Côte d'Ivoire
EcuadorCôte d'Ivoire v Ecuador is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Monday 15 June 2026
Sweden v Tunisia
Sweden
TunisiaThe model thinks Tunisia are mispriced. Our number reads 34% on the away side; the market reads 22%. That +12.2 pts gap is a Pick.
Spain v Cabo Verde
Spain
Cabo VerdeAny gap on Spain v Cabo Verde sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Belgium v Egypt
Belgium
EgyptA 10.4 pts gap across model and market on the Egypt side. Our model, after host and altitude adjustments, rates Egypt at 27%; Kalshi sits at 17%.
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
UruguayAny gap on Saudi Arabia v Uruguay sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Tuesday 16 June 2026
IR Iran v New Zealand
IR Iran
New ZealandThe line on IR Iran v New Zealand is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
France v Senegal
France
SenegalThe line on France v Senegal is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Iraq v Norway
Iraq
NorwayIraq enter as the longshot — Kalshi prices their chances at 7%. The model rates them at 18%, a +11.3 pts disagreement and one of our widest in this competition.
Wednesday 17 June 2026
Argentina v Algeria
Argentina
AlgeriaOn every meaningful read, Argentina look stronger here than Polymarket has them. Model 81% vs market 70% — a +11.1 pts gap on the favourite side.
Austria v Jordan
Austria
JordanOur model lands close to The Market on every side of Austria v Jordan. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Portugal v DR Congo
Portugal
DR CongoOn Portugal v DR Congo the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
England v Croatia
England
CroatiaThis is a Pick on the Croatia side — the model has them at 28%, the market at 20%. A 8.2 pts gap is enough on a fixture this close to even.
Ghana v Panama
Ghana
PanamaGhana v Panama is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Thursday 18 June 2026
Uzbekistan v Colombia
Uzbekistan
ColombiaUzbekistan v Colombia is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Czechia v South Africa
Across Czechia, the draw, and South Africa, neither side stretches more than a point past the market. Pass.
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Canada v Qatar
The away side reads stronger to the model than to the market. Our model puts Qatar at 18%; Kalshi prices that side at 8%. That +9.8 pts gap makes this a Pick.
Friday 19 June 2026
Mexico v Korea Republic
The model thinks Korea Republic are mispriced. Our number reads 31% on the away side; the market reads 20%. That +10.3 pts gap is a Pick.
United States v Australia
The model thinks Australia are mispriced. Our number reads 30% on the away side; the market reads 19%. That +10.7 pts gap is a Pick.
Scotland v Morocco
Our model lands close to The Market on every side of Scotland v Morocco. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Saturday 20 June 2026
Brazil v Haiti
The model and the market disagree on whether a stalemate is in play here. Our prior puts the draw at 10%; Betfair_Ex_Eu prices it at 6%. That +3.8 pts gap is a Pick.
Türkiye v Paraguay
Our model lands close to The Market on every side of Türkiye v Paraguay. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Netherlands v Sweden
The line on Netherlands v Sweden is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
Any gap on Germany v Côte d'Ivoire sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Sunday 21 June 2026
Ecuador v Curaçao
Any gap on Ecuador v Curaçao sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Tunisia v Japan
On Tunisia v Japan the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Spain v Saudi Arabia
On Saudi Arabia, the model is +6.7 pts out from Betfair_Ex_Eu. Our number reads 10%; the market reads 3%. That gap is the basis for the Pick.
Belgium v IR Iran
The model thinks IR Iran are mispriced. Our number reads 26% on the away side; the market reads 12%. That +13.3 pts gap is a Pick.
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
The line on Uruguay v Cabo Verde is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Monday 22 June 2026
New Zealand v Egypt
New Zealand v Egypt is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Argentina v Austria
Argentina are favourites on the market at 59% — and the model thinks the market is still underrating them. Our model projects 76% — making this a Pick.
France v Iraq
The line on France v Iraq is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Tuesday 23 June 2026
Norway v Senegal
The model thinks Senegal are mispriced. Our number reads 39% on the away side; the market reads 28%. That +10.0 pts gap is a Pick.
Jordan v Algeria
On Jordan v Algeria the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Portugal v Uzbekistan
Any gap on Portugal v Uzbekistan sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
England v Ghana
On England v Ghana the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Panama v Croatia
On every meaningful read, Croatia look stronger here than Kalshi has them. Model 75% vs market 62% — a +12.2 pts gap on the favourite side.
Wednesday 24 June 2026
Colombia v DR Congo
On Colombia v DR Congo the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar
The model thinks Qatar are mispriced. Our number reads 34% on the away side; the market reads 16%. That +17.7 pts gap is a Pick.
Switzerland v Canada
A 15.2 pts gap across model and market on the Canada side. Our model, after host and altitude adjustments, rates Canada at 39%; Polymarket sits at 23%.
Morocco v Haiti
Any gap on Morocco v Haiti sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Scotland v Brazil
Brazil is the favourite at 70%; the model lands within touching distance at 65%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Thursday 25 June 2026
Czechia v Mexico
Mexico is the favourite at 48%; the model lands within touching distance at 47%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
South Africa v Korea Republic
Korea Republic is the favourite at 48%; the model lands within touching distance at 56%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
Our model lands close to The Market on every side of Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Ecuador v Germany
On Ecuador, the model is +9.1 pts out from Kalshi. Our number reads 27%; the market reads 18%. That gap is the basis for the Pick.
Japan v Sweden
Across Japan, the draw, and Sweden, neither side stretches more than a point past the market. Pass.
Tunisia v Netherlands
Tunisia v Netherlands is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Friday 26 June 2026
Paraguay v Australia
On Australia, the model is +8.1 pts out from Polymarket. Our number reads 36%; the market reads 28%. That gap is the basis for the Pick.
Türkiye v United States
Our model lands close to The Market on every side of Türkiye v United States. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Norway v France
France are favourites on the market at 55% — and the model thinks the market is still underrating them. Our model projects 71% — making this a Pick.
Senegal v Iraq
On Senegal v Iraq the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Saturday 27 June 2026
Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia
On every meaningful read, Saudi Arabia look stronger here than Polymarket has them. Model 50% vs market 36% — a +12.8 pts gap on the favourite side.
Uruguay v Spain
The line on Uruguay v Spain is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Egypt v IR Iran
Egypt is the favourite at 42%; the model lands within touching distance at 38%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
New Zealand v Belgium
Any gap on New Zealand v Belgium sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Croatia v Ghana
Any gap on Croatia v Ghana sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Panama v England
There's no Pick to manufacture on Panama v England. The model and The Market arrive at the same shape. Pass.
DR Congo v Uzbekistan
On DR Congo v Uzbekistan the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Colombia v Portugal
Colombia v Portugal is genuinely tight, and the market knows it. No side gives the model enough room to disagree. Pass.
Sunday 28 June 2026
Algeria v Austria
Any gap on Algeria v Austria sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.