Outright winners

Team		Group stage — pending kick-off								The Desk
Team	Verdict	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Model	Market	Edge
1Argentina	PickYES	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	8.5%	+10.3
2France	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.3%	16.7%	-1.4
3Spain	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.6%	17.0%	-4.3
4Brazil	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.9%	9.3%	-0.5
5Germany	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.4%	5.1%	+3.3
6England	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.6%	11.2%	-3.6
7Portugal	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.7%	10.2%	-4.4
8Netherlands	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.1%	3.8%	+1.3
9Croatia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3%	0.9%	+1.4
10Uruguay	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	1.1%	+0.9
11Colombia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	1.8%	+0.1
12Belgium	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8%	1.8%	+0.0
13Switzerland	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1
14Morocco	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1%	1.5%	-0.4
15Ecuador	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9%	0.9%	+0.0
16Mexico	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9%	1.1%	-0.2
17Czechia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8%	0.2%	+0.6
18Japan	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7%	1.8%	-1.1
19USA	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7%	1.1%	-0.5
20Korea Republic	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.2%	+0.2
21Senegal	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.7%	-0.1
22Türkiye	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4%	0.8%	-0.3
23IR Iran	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4%	0.1%	+0.3
24Norway	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4%	2.9%	-2.5
25Austria	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3
26Côte d'Ivoire	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1
27Algeria	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0
28Paraguay	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1
29Tunisia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1
30Bosnia and Herzegovina	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2
31Sweden	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.5%	-0.5
32Australia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1
33Egypt	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2
34Scotland	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2
35Ghana	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2
36Canada	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.4%	-0.3
37South Africa	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0
38Qatar	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.0
39Panama	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.0
40Iraq	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.0
41New Zealand	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
42Haiti	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
43Jordan	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
44Curaçao	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
45Uzbekistan	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
46DR Congo	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
47Cabo Verde	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1
48Saudi Arabia	Pass	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1

Model the Desk's simulated probabilityMarket price-implied probabilityEdge model − market, in pointsPick edge clears +3.0ppPass no decisive gap

† Stat columns sit empty until the tournament kicks off — a winner market has no games played yet. The same cells fill automatically once group play begins.

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