Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire · no real gap to publish
Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire
Curaçao
Côte d'IvoireOur model lands close to The Market on every side of Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire. Nothing wide enough to publish as a Pick. Pass.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Neither camp has flagged a thing this close to kickoff.
Our model carries a confidence band around every estimate, and on Curaçao versus Côte d'Ivoire the market price sits inside that band on all three sides. The point estimates (17% / 16% / 67%) run close to The Market, but more importantly the small differences that do exist are smaller than the model's own uncertainty about its number. Pass is what we publish when the signal is inside the noise. The bands tighten as kickoff nears.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Curaçao
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 7.60 | 13.2% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 11.2% |
| KalshiPrediction market | — | 11.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 11.7%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 5.17 | 19.3% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 5.25 | 19.0% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 19.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 16.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 18.0%
Côte d'Ivoire
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.35 | 74.1% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 73.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 70.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 70.4%
The drivers
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
- Model puts Curaçao at 17%, the draw at 16%, Côte d'Ivoire at 67% — close to the market on each side.
- No side runs more than a couple of points clear of the model on this fixture.
Sources
- The Guardian (football) · 29 May 2026
I was quite successful in this stadium, so you have to be careful tomorrow
- The Guardian (football) · 29 May 2026
He will become the oldest coach in World Cup history when Curaçao face Germany on 14 June.