France v Iraq · priced about right
France v Iraq
France
IraqThe line on France v Iraq is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Nothing's surfaced on either squad this week — no absences, no bans.
France should win, and the price already says so. The model has France at 85%, the market at 88%. Strong favourites priced shorter than the model rates them is where we get Picks; the reverse — both numbers landing in the same place — is where we get a Pass. We'll check again near kickoff when the confirmed eleven and any fitness news land; until then, the price reads fair.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
France
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 1.12 | 89.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.12 | 89.5% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.11 | 90.1% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.11 | 90.1% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 88.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 87.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 86.2%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 8.70 | 11.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 10.00 | 10.2% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 10.00 | 10.2% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 9.8% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 9.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 10.0%
Iraq
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 22.71 | 4.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 29.00 | 3.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 29.00 | 3.5% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 5.0% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 3.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 3.8%
The drivers
- The market is absorbing the same reads the model is weighing; nothing to chase.
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
- Model puts France at 85%, the draw at 10%, Iraq at 5% — close to the market on each side.
Sources
- Yahoo Sports (soccer) · 22 May 2026
Newcomer Robin Risser has been handed the number 2