Germany v Côte d'Ivoire · two reads, one answer
Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
Germany
Côte d'IvoireAny gap on Germany v Côte d'Ivoire sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Quiet on the team-news front: no reported injuries or suspensions either way.
On Germany versus Côte d'Ivoire, our model and the market arrive at the same shape from different directions. Germany reads at 60%, the draw at 19%, Côte d'Ivoire at 21%. The market's shape sits on top of that read. When two independent estimates converge, there is rarely a Pick worth publishing. We'll revisit closer to kickoff when team news and weather can pull the two numbers apart.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Germany
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.51 | 66.2% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 1.54 | 65.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.54 | 65.4% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.55 | 64.5% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.55 | 64.5% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 64.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 62.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 62.1%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.29 | 23.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 4.40 | 23.1% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 4.40 | 23.1% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 3.90 | 25.6% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 22.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 21.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 21.9%
Côte d'Ivoire
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 5.55 | 18.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 6.20 | 16.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 6.20 | 16.4% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 15.8% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 15.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 16.0%
The drivers
- Tight three-way pricing rarely produces a Pick — the disagreement isn't there to publish.
- The market is absorbing the same reads the model is weighing; nothing to chase.
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.