Haiti v Scotland · priced about right
Haiti v Scotland
Haiti
ScotlandScotland is the favourite at 68%; the model lands within touching distance at 75%. Nothing to chase. Pass.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Out for Scotland: Billy Gilmour suffered a knee injury and was ruled out of the World Cup, Billy Gilmour is unavailable due to injury., Billy Gilmour has been ruled out through injury sustained in a friendly match against Curacao., Billy Gilmour ruled out of World Cup with knee injury, Billy Gilmour has been ruled out of the World Cup finals due to a knee injury., Billy Gilmour ruled out of World Cup due to knee injury, Billy Gilmour was injured during a match against Curacao.
The line on Haiti versus Scotland is already absorbing the same information our model is weighing. The Market prices Haiti at 13%, the draw at 20%, Scotland at 68%; our read is the same shape. Pass means the market is doing its job — not a missed opportunity, not a lazy verdict. We look for disagreement; today, there isn't enough of it on either side. Per The Guardian (football): "Scotland beat 10-man Curaçao but injury puts Billy Gilmour out of World Cup" BBC Sport (football) carried the same line: "Scotland head to World Cup in buoyant mood"
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Haiti
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 6.29 | 15.9% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 7.60 | 13.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 7.60 | 13.4% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 14.3% |
Sharp consensus fair value 13.7%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.80 | 20.8% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 5.00 | 20.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 5.00 | 20.3% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 20.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 19.9%
Scotland
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.45 | 69.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 1.48 | 68.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.48 | 68.0% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 68.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 66.4%
The drivers
- Tight three-way pricing rarely produces a Pick — the disagreement isn't there to publish.
- The market is absorbing the same reads the model is weighing; nothing to chase.
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
Sources
- The Guardian (football) · 30 May 2026
Scotland beat 10-man Curaçao but injury puts Billy Gilmour out of World Cup
- BBC Sport (football) · 30 May 2026
Scotland head to World Cup in buoyant mood
- BBC Sport (football) · 30 May 2026
Lawrence Shankland and Findlay Curtis were the big winners in Scotland's friendly win over Curacao
- BBC Sport (football) · 29 May 2026
Steve Clarke says his near U-turn to continue as Scotland head coach was based on his conviction he is the best man for the job.
- Sky Sports (football) · 30 May 2026
Scotland boss Steve Clarke says he is "100 per cent worried" about Billy Gilmour after the midfielder hobbled off injured against Curacao on the eve of the World Cup.
- FourFourTwo · 31 May 2026
The Scots saw off Denmark 4-2 last year in a match for the ages