IR Iran v New Zealand · two reads, one answer
IR Iran v New Zealand
IR Iran
New ZealandThe line on IR Iran v New Zealand is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Nothing's surfaced on either squad this week — no absences, no bans.
IR Iran should win, and the price already says so. The model has IR Iran at 61%, the market at 52%. Strong favourites priced shorter than the model rates them is where we get Picks; the reverse — both numbers landing in the same place — is where we get a Pass. We'll check again near kickoff when the confirmed eleven and any fitness news land; until then, the price reads fair.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
IR Iran
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 1.94 | 52.1% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.94 | 52.1% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.83 | 54.6% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 52.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 50.9%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 3.65 | 27.8% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 3.65 | 27.8% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 27.3% |
Sharp consensus fair value 27.2%
New Zealand
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.28 | 23.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 4.50 | 22.6% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 4.50 | 22.6% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 22.8% |
Sharp consensus fair value 22.0%
The drivers
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
- Model puts IR Iran at 61%, the draw at 19%, New Zealand at 20% — close to the market on each side.
- No side runs more than a couple of points clear of the model on this fixture.