Morocco v Haiti · priced about right
Morocco v Haiti
Morocco
HaitiAny gap on Morocco v Haiti sits inside the model's own uncertainty band. Pass — the signal isn't there yet.
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Squad
Neither camp has flagged a thing this close to kickoff.
Nothing in the lead-up to Morocco versus Haiti has pulled the price meaningfully off the model. Team news has been quiet, no shock injury or suspension has landed, and the market's three-way (74% / 19% / 8%) tracks the model's read (80% / 10% / 10%). Pass holds in a quiet week. The engine republishes as news moves the prior; a confirmed XI surprise is the most likely thing to turn this into a Pick.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Morocco
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Sky BetBestSportsbookUK | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 75.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 71.5%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleBestSportsbookEU | 5.16 | 19.4% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.80 | 20.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 19.8% |
Sharp consensus fair value 18.4%
Haiti
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 8.61 | 11.6% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 9.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 10.1%
The drivers
- Tight three-way pricing rarely produces a Pick — the disagreement isn't there to publish.
- The market is absorbing the same reads the model is weighing; nothing to chase.
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
Sources
- The Guardian (football) · 30 May 2026
Expectations were raised after a first semi-final at Qatar 2022