Senegal v Iraq · two reads, one answer
Senegal v Iraq
Senegal
IraqOn Senegal v Iraq the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
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Squad
Quiet on the team-news front: no reported injuries or suspensions either way.
Nothing in the lead-up to Senegal versus Iraq has pulled the price meaningfully off the model. Team news has been quiet, no shock injury or suspension has landed, and the market's three-way (66% / 22% / 11%) tracks the model's read (69% / 15% / 16%). Pass holds in a quiet week. The engine republishes as news moves the prior; a confirmed XI surprise is the most likely thing to turn this into a Pick.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Senegal
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.41 | 70.9% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| PolymarketBestPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 66.2% |
| KalshiPrediction market | — | 66.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 65.5%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.38 | 22.8% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 24.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 21.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 22.1%
Iraq
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 7.16 | 14.0% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 12.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 11.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 12.4%
The drivers
- The market is absorbing the same reads the model is weighing; nothing to chase.
- Pass for now. The engine republishes hourly inside T-24h and after major news.
- Model puts Senegal at 69%, the draw at 15%, Iraq at 16% — close to the market on each side.