Uruguay v Cabo Verde · two reads, one answer
Uruguay v Cabo Verde
Uruguay
Cabo VerdeThe line on Uruguay v Cabo Verde is doing its job: the price is already absorbing the same reads the model is using. Pass.
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Squad
Clean bill on the team sheets, as far as anyone's said.
Nothing in the lead-up to Uruguay versus Cabo Verde has pulled the price meaningfully off the model. Team news has been quiet, no shock injury or suspension has landed, and the market's three-way (68% / 20% / 12%) tracks the model's read (76% / 11% / 13%). Pass holds in a quiet week. The engine republishes as news moves the prior; a confirmed XI surprise is the most likely thing to turn this into a Pick.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
Uruguay
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 1.44 | 69.9% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 1.44 | 69.9% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 68.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 67.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 66.8%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 4.42 | 22.6% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 4.60 | 22.1% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 4.60 | 22.1% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 22.8% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 20.0% |
Sharp consensus fair value 21.2%
Cabo Verde
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 7.39 | 13.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 8.60 | 11.8% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 8.60 | 11.8% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 12.2% |
| KalshiBestPrediction market | — | 11.5% |
Sharp consensus fair value 11.9%
The drivers
- Model puts Uruguay at 76%, the draw at 11%, Cabo Verde at 13% — close to the market on each side.
- No side runs more than a couple of points clear of the model on this fixture.
- Team news, weather, and the confirmed XI feed back into the prior as kickoff approaches.