United States v Paraguay · the read is the same on both sides
United States v Paraguay
United States
ParaguayOn United States v Paraguay the model and the market read the fixture the same way. Line-ups, weather, and any late news will be revisited closer to kickoff. Pass for now.
Editorial analysis only. Odds Primer does not provide betting or financial advice.
Squad
Clean bill on the team sheets, as far as anyone's said.
On United States versus Paraguay, our model and the market arrive at the same shape from different directions. United States reads at 46%, the draw at 25%, Paraguay at 29%. The market's shape sits on top of that read. When two independent estimates converge, there is rarely a Pick worth publishing. We'll revisit closer to kickoff when team news and weather can pull the two numbers apart.
Price across venues
The number that matters is the true price — what you actually pay once each venue's margin, fee, spread, or commission is folded in. The cheapest true price wins.
United States
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 1.98 | 50.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 2.04 | 49.5% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 2.04 | 49.5% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 50.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 48.2%
Draw
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleBestSportsbookEU | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)ExchangeUK | 3.45 | 29.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 3.45 | 29.4% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 29.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 28.3%
Paraguay
| Venue | Odds | True price |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSportsbookEU | 3.90 | 25.6% |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)BestExchangeUK | 4.30 | 23.6% |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)ExchangeEU | 4.30 | 23.6% |
| William HillSportsbookUK | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Sky BetSportsbookUK | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| PolymarketPrediction marketGLOBAL | — | 24.2% |
Sharp consensus fair value 23.5%
The drivers
- Model puts United States at 46%, the draw at 25%, Paraguay at 29% — close to the market on each side.
- No side runs more than a couple of points clear of the model on this fixture.
- Team news, weather, and the confirmed XI feed back into the prior as kickoff approaches.
Sources
- The Guardian (football) · 23 May 2026
Diego Luna is omitted despite strong form