France

The Desk's model rates France at 15.3% to win world cup 2026 — outright winner; the market prices that side at 16.7%. The edge is -1.4pp — inside the Pass band.

That puts France 2nd on the model ladder in a field of 48. The model's leader, Argentina, sits at 18.8%.

For the verdict to flip to Pick at today's market price, the model would need to rate France at 19.7% or better — a 4.4pp move from where it sits now. Across 100 bootstrap re-simulations of the tournament the band runs [9.4%, 22.2%], so even at the upper end the Pick bar is in reach.

Pass isn't 'no opinion'. It's the Desk saying the price and the model agree closely enough that there's no edge to publish. A reader can still take a side on conviction; we just don't have an editorial reason to push them either way.