Germany
World Cup 2026 — outright winner · Pass
Germany
GermanyModel leans yes — 8.4% vs market 5.1% (+3.3pp). Bootstrap lower bound (-0.5pp) crosses zero, so the edge isn't robust enough to act on.
The Desk's model rates Germany at 8.4% to win world cup 2026 — outright winner; the market prices that side at 5.1%. The edge is +3.3pp — a lean toward YES that doesn't clear the bar.
That puts Germany 5th on the model ladder in a field of 48. The model's leader, Argentina, sits at 18.8%. The market has Germany 7th on its own ladder — so reader and model disagree about where this side belongs, but not by enough to publish a position.
Pass isn't 'no opinion'. It's the Desk saying the price and the model agree closely enough that there's no edge to publish. A reader can still take a side on conviction; we just don't have an editorial reason to push them either way.