Mexico
World Cup 2026 — outright winner · Pass
Mexico
MexicoPriced close to fair: model 0.9% vs market 1.1% (-0.2pp). No edge in either direction.
The Desk's model rates Mexico at 0.9% to win world cup 2026 — outright winner; the market prices that side at 1.1%. The edge is -0.2pp — inside the Pass band.
That puts Mexico 16th on the model ladder in a field of 48. The model's leader, Argentina, sits at 18.8%. The market has Mexico 17th on its own ladder — so reader and model disagree about where this side belongs, but not by enough to publish a position.
For the verdict to flip to Pick at today's market price, the model would need to rate Mexico at 4.0% or better — a 3.2pp move from where it sits now. Across 100 bootstrap re-simulations of the tournament the band runs [0.2%, 2.0%], and even at the upper end the Pick bar isn't reached.
Pass isn't 'no opinion'. It's the Desk saying the price and the model agree closely enough that there's no edge to publish. A reader can still take a side on conviction; we just don't have an editorial reason to push them either way.